David Thornburgh: In Pa., independent voters take center stage (2024)

Living and working in Pennsylvania this past election cycle has been reminiscent of a 1985 Sally Field Oscar acceptance moment: “You like me. Right now, you like me.” With Florida now a deeper red, Pennsylvania looms as perhaps the most important swing state in the 2024 election.

Native Pennsylvanians like myself are still getting used to the idea. Sure, we’ve called ourselves the Keystone State forever — but excluding stone masons, even most longtime Pennsylvanians have no idea what a keystone is or why you’d want to be one.

The 2022 election made it clear, however, that Pennsylvania has earned its spot on the arch. In a race that cost over $312 million, populist Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman beat Republican Mehmet Oz by a convincing margin to secure Senate control for the Democrats. Attorney General Josh Shapiro obliterated the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, by almost 15 points — perhaps the most visceral defeat suffered by the Grand Old Party’s Trump faction anywhere in the country.

So some post-election analysis is probably in order to figure out what the heck went on in Pennsylvania. One message seems to have eluded most observers: the critical role that independent voters played in the outcome. While Pennsylvania’s not the only place where this dynamic was overlooked, the impact of the state’s 1.1 million independent votersdoesn’t neatly fit the convenient red team-blue team narrative that the political class clings to.

Independent voters now swing close elections in Pennsylvania. Almost all Democrats vote for Democrats, and the same goes for Republicans. But in 2016, independents went +7 for Donald Trump. In 2020, they went +8 for Joe Biden. That’s a swing of 15 points. In 2022, Pennsylvania independents voted for Shapiro by almost a 2:1 margin (64 to 33) and for Fetterman by 58 to 38. And while exit polling doesn’t offer much insight on state legislative races, it’s likely that independent voters swung tight races in those chambers as well.

Growing awareness of the impact that independent voters have on both statewide and down-ballot races should give more momentum to a nonpartisan effort that I chair called Ballot PA, which aims to repeal closed primaries in Pennsylvania and allow independent voters to choose a party primary in which to participate. According to the National Conference of State Legislators, Pennsylvania is one of only nine states that still bans independent voters from participating in primaries. This despite the fact that half of all veterans are political independents and two-thirds of voters aged 18 to 39 in a recent poll support ending closed primaries.

These efforts may gain tailwinds as Pennsylvania enters the municipal election season in 2023. Borough councils, township supervisors, school board members, local judges and a few mayors will be elected in 2023. Remember that old line, “there’s no Republican or Democratic way to fill a pothole”? If that’s the case, many independent voters ask, why don’t they get a chance to vote for their favorite pothole-filler?

Bills to ensure that all voters can vote in all elections have been gaining traction in recent years and will soon be dropping into the legislative hopper for the 2023-24 legislative session. Pennsylvania just might be primed to reclaim its birthright of independence — and independents.